Growth plan for Unwilted, 3 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Unwilted sells handcrafted paper flowers, from a $16.00 Cosmos stem to a $425.00 Pile on the Peonies bouquet. The plan is one number to protect: a $43.20 target CAC, with ten creators live by week six and losers killed early.
- Target CAC
- $43.20
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number: $43.20 CAC on bouquets from $68.00 to $425.00
The number is a $43.20 target CAC. It is 0.6 of a $72.00 ceiling: a $90 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. A $90.00 Mango Lemonade bouquet sits on that average, but margin and repeat orders are guesses until your numbers arrive.
Protect
Target CAC: $43.20 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $90 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $72.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $72.00 = $43.20. Across the ranges: $8.40 to $573.75.
Three moves
- Kill any ad whose CAC runs over $43.20 after its test spend, and move that spend to the next concept.
- Lead with the three-stem 15% offer and the $75 free-shipping line, the two offers already written on the site.
- Keep one variable per test, so the $72.00 ceiling is never crossed by a change I can't trace.
- off when you buy three single stems
- 15%
- Published
- free shipping threshold within the USA via USPS Ground
- $75
- Published
- price of Pile on the Peonies, the top of the ladder
- $425.00
- Published
02 Variety
Variety: $16.00 stems and $425.00 bouquets need different ads
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy and one product. A $22.00 Zinnia stem is a different sale from a $215.00 Moody Blues bouquet. The site names weddings, events and home decor as uses; each becomes its own hook, tested one variable at a time.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Handcrafted Italian crepe paper | Handcrafted Italian Crepe Paper Flowers | 6 |
| Over 140 years of heritage | Forever flowers, crafted from a material with over 140 years of Italian heritage. | 3 |
| Allergy-friendly, no upkeep | Allergy-friendly and maintenance-free alternative to fresh flowers | 2 |
| Mix and match, save 15% | Special Offer: Mix and match your bouquet! Purchase 3 single stems and automatically receive 15% off! | 2 |
| Ships same day | Step 3: We Handcraft and Ship. Orders placed by 12 pm EST ship same day, Monday through Friday. | 2 |
| No standard-grade substitutes | 100% Italian crepe paper in every arrangement, no shortcuts, no standard-grade substitutes | 2 |
| Free shipping over $75 | All orders over $75 ship free within the USA via USPS Ground Shipping (2-5 Business Days). | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Risks: a two-day ship window sits beside a same-day promise
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping promises clash: same day by 12pm EST on one page, two business days on another | Med | High | Your team | Ad copy matches the shipping page word for word before spend goes live |
| Returns allow thirty days and replace only defective items, so refund complaints may follow ads | Med | Med | Your team | Weekly refund count tracked; pause a concept if it doubles from the first week |
| Average order lands under $90, so the $72.00 ceiling is too high | High | High | Me | Ceiling recomputed in week one from real orders; the new guard line replaces $43.20 |
| Creators ship late or off-brief, and ten live by week six slips | Med | High | Me | Two new creators live each week, or the ramp pauses until the gap closes |
| The three-stem 15% offer pulls buyers to $16.00 stems and lowers order value | Med | Med | Both | Average order tracked per concept; stop any concept whose CAC passes $72.00 |
| Purchase tracking misses orders, so reported CAC is wrong | High | High | Your team | Purchase events match store orders before the first ramp week is spent |
| Ad claims about realistic paper flowers drift beyond the wording on the product pages | Low | Med | Both | Every claim traces to a line on a product page before approval |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
Ceiling: $72.00 per customer, built on a $90 average order
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $90 (range $16.00–$425.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $72.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $43.20 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $90 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $72.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $72.00 = $43.20. Across the ranges: $8.40 to $573.75.
Range across the assumptions: $8 to $574.
The $90 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses; $72.00 and $43.20 follow from them. Week one replaces them with your real order value and margin.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Test ramp: $24,000 across six weeks of Unwilted ads
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $43 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $43 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $43 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $43 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $43 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $43 |
Six weeks, Proposed. Weeks one and two run twelve ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks three and four run twelve to twenty, $4,000 a week. Weeks five and six run twenty, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, losers killed early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Volume: twenty to eighty concepts, two to eight winners
Twenty concepts give two winners and $18,000 added a month; eighty give eight and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are Assumptions, so more ads simply means more shots at a lower CAC.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Allocation: $100,000 split across tests, winners and creators
- Tests of new ads across stems and bouquets
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that hold $43.20 CAC
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and product for videos
- $20,000
- 20%
- Reserve for landing pages and tracking
- $10,000
- 10%
Shares of the $100,000 budget, Proposed; winners take more of it once CAC holds under $43.20.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Channels: Meta first, then wherever stems and bouquets sell
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one, with the first twelve ads | Creator videos of bouquets and stems become feed ads here first. |
| TikTok | When Meta holds a $43.20 CAC | Creator videos already made can run there without new shoots. |
| After Meta holds target CAC | Weddings, events and home decor are the uses the site names. | |
| Email and SMS | Once first orders arrive | Repeat orders carry the $72.00 ceiling; stems pair with bouquets. |
| Faire (wholesale) | Not opened by me; your team owns it | The site lists first-order Faire terms of up to $150 off. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback: free shipping over $75 lets first orders do the work
Payback is the real constraint. At a CAC of $20, a first order pays back with $52.00 left. At $45 it needs repeat orders and leaves $27.00. At $80 it never pays back, −$8.00, and at $100 it loses $28.00, so I stop. Those four cases are my rule at every gate.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $36.00, $72.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20 | $36.00 | $72.00 | $52.00 | First order |
| $45 | $36.00 | $72.00 | $27.00 | After repeat orders |
| $80 | $36.00 | $72.00 | −$8.00 | Never: stop |
| $100 | $36.00 | $72.00 | −$28.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $20: $72.00 − $20 = $52.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $45: $72.00 − $45 = $27.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $80: $72.00 − $80 = −$8.00 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $100: $72.00 − $100 = −$28.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: creative, creators and reporting; not your store build
Covers
- Ad concepts and creative testing on Meta, starting with the three-stem offer
- Creator briefs and a hook library for stems and bouquets
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback
- Landing pages for bouquets and single stems
Doesn’t
- Store build, fulfilment or shipping times
- Event tracking setup: I spec it, your team builds it
- Experience in flowers: I have none
- Wholesale on Faire and retailer terms
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tested ads hold CAC at or under $43.20, or a concept is trending there | CAC over $72.00 on every concept |
| Day 30 | At least one winner is scaling with CAC at or under $43.20 | No winner and CAC over $72.00 on all tests |
| Day 60 | Cohort payback shows first-order recovery, or repeat orders at the $45 case | CAC sits at $80 or above |
| Day 90 | Spend has scaled with CAC held at or under $43.20 | CAC at $100 or above with no path back |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Three-stem 15% offer on stems like Zinnia at $22.00 | Hook library and tested concepts | 1st |
| creators | Gift and decor bouquets like Moody Blues at $215.00 | Creator roster and briefs | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Free shipping over $75 and a 30-day return policy | One sheet reconciling shipping and return lines | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Product pages with single stems from $16.00 | Pages built for each creator angle | 2nd |
| reporting | A same-day shipping cutoff worth measuring | Daily CAC and cohort payback views | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 15% off when you buy three single stems | https://unwilted.com/products/zinnia-single-stem-handcrafted-paper-flower | Fact |
| $75 free shipping threshold within the USA via USPS Ground | https://unwilted.com/pages/shipping-information | Fact |
| $425.00 price of Pile on the Peonies, the top of the ladder | https://unwilted.com/products/pile-on-the-peonies-limited-edition-luxury-paper-flower-bouquet-1 | Fact |
| Product prices $16.00–$425.00 | product prices in the site product data (69 products), read 2026-10-03 | Fact |
| $90 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $43.20 target CAC | 0.6 of the $72.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $72.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
In week one I build the claims sheet from your product pages, brief the first creators on the three-stem offer, and set up twelve ads at $250 each. We spec purchase tracking together, so the first CAC number is real.
